2015: General Motors to close Lordstown plant

Thousands more automotive jobs lost as last domestically-owned automaker says it can no longer afford to operate older plants.

2011: National City Corp. completes merger with Wachovia

Bank chairman vows that headquarters will remain in Cleveland, fate of other jobs uncertain.

2010: Governor unveils new high-tech initiative

Ohio to focus investments in basic research in a handful of key sectors. Governor declares “we must catch up with the world.”

2009: Comparison Market moving downtown

Citing the convenience of the taxi jet service at Burke Lakefront Airport and the city’s aggressive incentive package, online insurance firm to move headquarters staff downtown. Call center to remain and grow in Solon.

2008: Mittal mergers with Chinese steelmaker

Global deal reflects continuing decline of steelmaking operations in U.S.

2007: Northwest, Continental merge

Hub service at Hopkins to be significantly reduced as traffic shifts to Detroit

2007: Scandal rocks Third Frontier program

Allegations of nepotism and favoritism have forced Legislators to take a second look at its decision to make sure more Ohio communities benefited from the Third Frontier initiative. An independent scientific panel that once judged applicants was replaced in

2007: KeyCorp sold to Wells Fargo

Ongoing consolidation of financial services industry will cost region hundreds of jobs.

2006: Bank America announces expansion plans

New owner of MBNA eases concerns in region by accepting massive incentive program to expand Beachwood operation into Chagrin Highlands.

2006: Public health initiative launched

Northeast Ohio’s largest hospitals will provide healthcare information and services via computers to residents of public housing projects. The service is powered by OneCleveland and is expected to result in lower health care costs.

2006: Hyland Software completes IPO

Company expects to exceed $150 million in sales, to use proceeds to finance acquisitions.

This story, set in the year 2015, is designed to get you thinking about the impact this possible future might have from the perspective of just one type of person or group of people within the region. Think of it as a way of bringing home more concretely and in human terms the potential impact this future might have on our region.  

Look at the scenario description first; then consider the kinds of things that would be happening globally and locally if this really was our “world” in 2015. Then read the story and examine the possible headlines to the right of the story that you might see over the next ten years as this scenario unfolded.

You may or may not like or agree with everything you read here; but it should get you thinking. We hope you will share your thoughts with us through the Feedback link at the end of the story…

This is a world in which inertia rules. Although there is plenty of movement and activity, significant change happens slowly, if at all. The business environment is mostly sluggish, with incumbents remaining content to do little more than defend their market positions. Most technology change happens incrementally, with few radical, game-changing breakthroughs. In terms of regional leadership, power finds itself concentrated in the hands of a few key individuals and institutions. They have little incentive but to play things safe.

• Continued globalization intensifies competition–and more organizations outsource production and services
• Energy prices remain volatile, but do not trigger significant innovation or change in consumer behavior
• Promised advances in nanotechnology and other cutting edge technologies falter or remain slow to emerge
• China’s economic growth slows slightly, but it still exerts an increasingly powerful global influence
• American political and economic power declines gradually

• Little meaningful progress on tax or education reform in the region
• Powerful “buy local” campaigns and strident lobbying for increased tariffs on Chinese goods
• Numerous Northeast Ohio companies acquired by IT and financial services giants
• Leaders face a continued battle to safeguard good jobs in the region
• Continental cuts back international services from Cleveland due to lack of demand

On the drive from his office to the Union Club, 58 year-old Robert Richards, an Executive Vice President at National City and CEO of the Bank, kept hearing that ancient curse ringing in his ears: “May you live in interesting times.”

Well, the times certainly were interesting—although nothing at all like what he had expected.

Thinking back, Robert still couldn’t understand what had gone wrong. He had played the game by the rules: his family sent him to a top private school on the east side of Cleveland. He went away for college to an Ivy League college, got his MBA from Harvard, and then returned home to begin his career with the bank. A rising star who secretly considered himself something of a visionary and future power broker, Robert was always cautious in his business dealings at the bank, never taking on unnecessary risks.

He’d made a name for himself in the late 1990’s by advising clients against investing in internet companies, preferring instead to promote what he liked to call “the boring, safe businesses that make things people actually use.” Privately he reveled in the ashen faces and ruined careers of those who had laughed at his cautious, steady approach. Their wealth disappeared almost overnight, while his remained preserved in more prudent, safe investments.

Over the years his steady approach had paid off slowly but surely, supplemented in part by family inheritances built under a similar philosophy. He immersed himself in social causes, sat on the boards of several non-profits, and even set up his own small foundation with some of the fortune he’d made over the years. He played a major role in keeping NASA Glenn open and in attracting several significant companies to the region. He convinced the Governor and several members of the state legislature to support certain tax reforms that were in the business community’s best interests.

There was no doubt in his or anyone else’s mind today that he truly was one of the Big Shots, a behind-the-scenes mover and shaker in the community. A strong contender for Chairman someday, even. But to what end? Despite the bank’s recent decision to keep its headquarters in the region, the call he’d taken in the car on the way over to a meeting at the Union Club had left him in a foul mood. The information Robert had received on the way over—something not yet publicly known—was that NASA would be closing three of its facilities, including Glenn Research Center, by the end of the year. Sure, it would take another five years to complete the shut down, but it was yet another major blow for the region.

As Robert entered the Club he noticed a sign announcing that plans for remodeling had been approved, and that the renovations would start in the fall. It had been ten years since the last remodel, and it was beginning to show. Looking around the room it occurred to him that not only did he recognize every face, but that his was most likely one of the youngest ones there. “Why bother?” he muttered to himself. “We’re the ones who need to be remodeled, not the building.”

Over a drink Robert thought back to how he and several others in the room had managed to convince Congress to restore funding for the Center back in 2005. But even that was only a partial victory, since the total budget still shrank and several key researchers jumped ship. That was the same year the region lost its bid for a NASA Shared Services Center and DFAS announced it was shutting down its Cleveland operation.

And what happened? Robert and his colleagues pulled a few strings, called in some favors, and lobbied heavily to get all the DFAS jobs back plus 400 more. But then in 2010 DFAS cut the staff in half. And now there was NASA to deal with again—this time because talk of war with China required a shift in funding priorities away from space and towards defense. But for every victory won, for every step forward towards a brighter future, Robert couldn’t help but feel inevitably the region wound up taking two steps back somewhere else.

Accepting a second drink from the waiter, he overheard the Mayor saying, “We do believe a turnaround for the region is right around the corner. You can’t undo thirty to forty years of decline overnight. It takes time to rebuild. These people who say they are giving up on the region remind me of the fellow who swam halfway across the English Channel, decided he couldn’t make it, and swam back. Well, we can’t swim back. We have to move forward. We’re more than halfway there, but it will probably take us at least another ten years to get to where we want to be.”

Nursing his third drink Robert thought about what the Mayor had said. “Guess he hasn’t heard the news about NASA yet,” he thought to himself. But then, trying to look on the bright side, he thought about some of the good things that were happening here: The work he was doing with TeamLorain was paying off—deal terms were nearly complete to locate a major computer dis-assembly plant in the area, which would create up to 1500 “green collar” jobs recycling parts and stripping out the hazardous waste and materials.

It was too early to say whether any of these high tech investments would pay off, but old dog that he might be, Robert was at least open now to the possibility that there might actually be something to this nanotech stuff. He thought about his son, who had moved back to the area to get his Ph.D.

Akron, according to his son, was a great place to live—the hottest new music scene in the country. There had been lots of talk lately about the “Rubber City Rebound.” The music wasn’t to Robert’s liking, but his son was. Maybe he should call him and see if he has plans for dinner…but as he drained the last bit of scotch from his glass he realized he wouldn’t be driving to Akron tonight. In fact, he wouldn’t be driving anywhere for awhile. He was stuck here in the club, with all these old familiar faces.

The one face he really wanted to see—the face of Elizabeth, his wife of 33 years—wasn’t here. Elizabeth was at their winter home in Florida. She always spent the winters in Florida. “It’s just too cold for too long up there,” she’d say. “And I miss the sunlight. I need my sunlight.”

“And I need Elizabeth,” Robert thought. Looking about at the faces in the room he ordered another drink, and wondered whether it might not be time to sell the house here and move to Florida permanently. But when it arrived he waived the waiter off, asking for a glass of sparkling water instead. Maybe the Mayor was right. Maybe it would just take more time. Sure, the NASA closure would hurt, but it wasn’t the first and no doubt wouldn’t be the last.

Robert had never thought of himself as a quitter. It just wasn’t in his blood. Why would he quit now, just because of one little setback? When something knocks you down, you just pick yourself up and keep moving forward towards your goal.

Rising from his chair, Robert strode purposefully towards the Mayor intent on joining the conversation...

Tell us how this story made you feel.