2015: Chinese giant bids for PolyOne

Board urges shareholders to reject offer, lobby government to block deal for national security reasons.

2015: State abandons fuel cell effort

Larger investments by global competitors cited for Ohio’s failure to maintain early leadership position.

2014: Cleveland Clinic opens embryonic stem cell research center

Shanghai center designed to keep Clinic at the forefront of regenerative research

2012: NASA Glenn selected as lead for Mars propulsion work

Breakthroughs at the Center’s presitous nuclear propulsion group made it an easy choice for Headquarters to make, according to Administrator Michaels.

2009: Johnson & Johnson locates research facility in University Circle’s West Quad

Medical giant joins parade of companies interested in being closer to health research center.

2008: PolyOne patents new polymer

Nanotechnology credited for breakthrough in “petroleum-free” polymer.

2007: University research funding to double

Ohio’s new Democratic leadership announced plans to double state support for university research over the next 10 years.

2007: Samsung opens research center in Kent

Promise of polymer-based liquid crystal displays attracting international investment.

2006: Oracle buys Axentis

IPO plans dropped as California giant makes big bid for compliance software company.

This story, set in the year 2015, is designed to get you thinking about the impact this possible future might have from the perspective of just one type of person or group of people within the region. Think of it as a way of bringing home more concretely and in human terms the potential impact this future might have on our region.  

Look at the scenario description first; then consider the kinds of things that would be happening globally and locally if this really was our “world” in 2015. Then read the story and examine the possible headlines to the right of the story that you might see over the next ten years as this scenario unfolded.

You may or may not like or agree with everything you read here; but it should get you thinking. We hope you will share your thoughts with us through the Feedback link at the end of the story…

A high-stakes world in which the technology winner takes all. Following mounting worries about climate change, security and healthcare, society looked to big science and technology for solutions. Thanks partially to the highly effective and extensive basic research conducted in the 1990s, there are radical breakthroughs that offer hope for the future. 2005-2015 became a time of powerful disruptive change in a host of industries – notably energy, materials and healthcare. These significant technology shifts were driven – and presided over – by consortia of the most powerful corporations and institutions. Deep pocket regions could afford to bet on numerous horses.

• Big global problems – climate change, healthcare, energy prices and national security – affect political and economic decisions around the world
• Governments and large corporations place renewed attention on science and technology in attempts to solve the problems
• Oil prices continue raising – at points hitting over $100 a barrel
• China invests massively to solve its environmental problems and to power ahead in technology (e.g. nuclear power, desalination plants); recruiting star scientists for huge salaries
• GE buys Boeing – just one of a spate of large scale mergers designed to achieve scale economies from R&D
• More global technology collaborations – for example the Airbus consortium model
• More regions follow California’s stem cell lead, and place big bets on promising technologies

• More selective government sponsored research and technology spending (fewer programs, larger sums).
• Salaries of top international scientists rise quickly due to competition – NE Ohio struggles to compete across some disciplines.
• Local State Universities consolidate research initiatives
• Reprieve for NASA Glenn – as space research becomes a revitalized political and strategic priority
• $5 billion alternative fuels bond measure passes
• PolyOne patents non-petroleum based plastic
• Small local technology companies don’t remain independent for long – often acquired by larger national and international concern

It seemed like a good idea at the time. A chance to leave the boring corporate world behind and get in on the ground floor of the Next New Thing: Wind Power.

And for a while it was. Oil prices quickly shot up over $105 a barrel and stayed there. Suddenly everybody was interested in alternative energy and wanted to get in on the action. The small company Robin Stallings formed was asked to help develop plans for a wind farm on Lake Erie. This led to a huge investment from a syndicate of both local and national venture funds. And the State was making an aggressive bid to have the newly proposed National Center for Alternative Energy Exploration located in Northeast Ohio. Returning from a conference in Geneva where he was asked to give the keynote address, she felt as if she didn’t even need this silly jumbo jet to fly home, she was floating on air.

Deplaning took nearly an hour. Robin looked forward to the short jet taxi that would take her to Burke Airport. In the same amount of time it would take just to get off this one jumbo jet she could get onto the jet taxi, take off, land, walk to her condo on 4 th Street and sit down at her drawing table to sketch out a new turbine design concept that had occurred to her during the flight.

But first she needed to check the messages on her cell phone. There were 17 of them, all from her partner, all marked “urgent.” She decided just to call Tom and skip the messages for now.

“We didn’t get it.”

“We didn’t get what?” Robin asked.

“The Center. The Alternative Energy Exploration Center. It went to North Carolina instead.”

Ever since President Edwards took office in 2008, the South had risen again. His re-election to a second term in 2012 seemed to ensure success for the southern region in garnering large federal contracts and appropriations, so few people—other than Robin and her partner—were surprised by the news. For many in the region, the handwriting had been on the wall since Nanofilm decided back in 2009 to move its headquarters from Northeast Ohio to Research Triangle Park.

The line went silent for nearly a full minute as Robin slowly let the news sink in. A major portion of the venture funding they had secured was tied to the company being one of the centerpieces of the NCAEE. Ohio had written them in as such in the State’s proposal. But now, even if they moved the company to North Carolina, there were no guarantees there would be a role for them in the Center. In Geneva Robin had run into Brad Riley, who ran virtually identical company to hers based in Charlotte, one entirely funded by Lighthouse Ventures—a fund dedicated to developing technology companies in North Carolina with strong ties to both the state and federal governments.

“What do we do now?” Robin asked.

“You know anything about Liquid Crystals?” her partner replied, trying to lighten the situation a bit. “I hear Philips and Samsung are duking it out over space near the Liquid Crystal Institute. Samsung wants to set up a research center there. Apparently that embedded polymer substrate stuff apparently is really catching on.”

The line remained silent. Robin thought back to her days in college when everyone was trying to decide what to major in. A friend of hers from Akron, Uni, a first generation Korean immigrant fascinated by American film culture, would jump into the conversation at random moments, quoting a line from The Graduate: “I have just one word of advice for you, young man. Just one word: Plastics.” Robin wasn’t sure (they’d lost touch over the years) but she thought she’d heard something about Uni taking a job at the Liquid Crystal Institute a few years back as part of the Institute’s “Totally Outrageous Service” program.

She wondered if Uni would still remember her…

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